Fourth place Fenerbahce host 18th place Yeni Malatyaspor on gameweek 19 of the Turkish Super Lig. The home side will be looking to bounce back after two consecutive draws, with their most recent match a disappointing 1-1 draw against Karagumruk - a match in which they played with a two man advantage for the entire second half. Fenerbahce are a massive 16 points behind leaders Trabzonspor and seven points behind Konyaspor and Champions League qualification. The visitors are third from the bottom with 15 points and are three points from safety - trailing 16th place Altay Spor who have 18 points. Malatyaspor have just three points from their last five league matches and have really struggled for goals this season, especially away from home. They’ve scored just 16 total goals through 18 matches - the lowest in the league, and have only managed to find the back of the net three times away from home.
Fenerbahce have suffered from some inconsistency at home, but have been a hard team to beat when playing at the Sukru Saracoglu stadium. They have four wins, three draws and one loss with a +7 goal differential. Yeni Malatyaspor tends to play a much more conservative style when away from home, with an emphasis on keeping a clean sheet. If we compare their home and away numbers they have scored 13 and conceded 24 at home vs just three scored and eight conceded away. This is a good opportunity for Fenerbahce to get back on track and should be able to pick up three points against an away side that has only managed seven points in eight away matches.
We’ll pay the extra vig and take Fenerbahce -1 on the Asian Handicap. This ensures that our bet is a push if the home side wins by only a single goal. The under 3 or under 3.5 are good alternatives as the visitors have been involved in a number of low scoring matches away from home. This should be three points for Fenerbahce in a game they are likely to win 2-0.